The Omicron Surge: Putting a Number on Fear
What’s your risk of dying of COVID compared to other stuff?
By Amy Rogers, MD, PhD
I’m getting loads of questions and hearing more pandemic conversation than I’ve heard in months. Here is my first post addressing some of the latest issues. At the top of the list is the omicron surge and what to do about Christmas. There are multiple aspects to this. Today I want to start with quantifying personal risk. This is not intended to ignore community risk, which is hugely important (and I’ll get to that). My goal is to put things in perspective for anyone who is personally afraid of COVID.
My vaccination is up to date but I’m still afraid
The US-made mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer are miraculous, on an Apollo moon landing scale of wonder. They are extraordinarily effective at preventing death and severe COVID disease. If you are under age 65 and in reasonable health, being up to date with your COVID vaccination (now the original series plus a booster) means your chance of landing in the ER because of COVID is much smaller than the chance you’ll go there after a car crash-even during a surge.
This is true for the original SARS-CoV-2 virus and all subsequent variants to date, including delta and omicron. My opinion is that…
